So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...

They have massive amounts of outside spending, but their candidates are consistently being outraised by Democrats.

Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.

Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate ...

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention. The NFL is back ...

I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, ...

In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast — now named FLIPR — on Tuesday. On balance, the model is bullish on Democrats’ chances in November. But while it currently rates the House ...

Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the ...