Markets are pricing in more than four Bank of England hikes as oil trades around $100, but we think expectations have turned ...

The ECB hike discount is stretched, but hard to lean against given the high level of uncertainty. Liquidity conditions will ...

Data could re-emerge as a primary driver for the dollar this week. After a good dose of hawkish Fedspeak and Brent staying ...

Since the Fed recommenced T-bill buying in mid-December 2025, it has bought a cumulative $360bn. Overall, the Fed's holdings ...

The overshoot to the 5.25%-5.5% area for the US 10yr yield is ongoing. The front end paused after valuations looked stretched, but resilient macro data, elevated energy prices and inflation pressures ...

After a weak January, eurozone industrial production grew for four months in a row despite the Middle East crisis and higher ...

Here, we discuss our new calls and why we're keeping our EUR/USD profile unchanged, still targeting 1.160 for year-end. We ...

AI disruption fears look premature in India and the Philippines. India's business-services exports more than doubled as a ...

The rise in back-end yields has prompted a risk-off environment that favours a consolidation of recent dollar gains. Markets ...

Tokyo inflation data will be released on Friday. Market consensus is for headline inflation to accelerate to 2.5% YoY, from 1 ...

France’s fiscal position is worse than expected, and the government has not yet presented a fully documented response. Debt will keep rising, while political fragmentation means that a credible ...

Despite the conflict in the Middle East, Poland's second-quarter GDP growth was buoyant at 3.9% YoY – but softer-than-expected August industrial output data, alongside the prolonged energy crisis, ...