Fed chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday. State Street's chief strategist lays out what investors should listen for.

Powell has never responded directly to Trump's provocations, and I, personally, expect this issue to play a predominant role at his latest meeting in Jackson Hole, perhaps even more so than the interest rate discussion. The independence of central banks is much more important than a 25 basis point change in the coming month.

The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.