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Goldman Sachs lowers recession odds

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Bloomberg |
“We think the White House is unlikely to quickly reverse most of the new tariffs, but our probability of recession would decline if it does,” Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said Wednesda...
Wall Street Journal |
Goldman Sachs revised down its economic growth forecasts for China, citing the expected negative effect of tariffs on the country’s economy and labor market.
The Washington Post |
President Donald Trump is pushing the economy into a recession.

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Goldman Sachs pulled its recession call moments after Trump pressed pause on tariffs. Moody’s chief economist isn’t convinced: ‘I take no solace in the president’s ...
Markets cheered the news of a 90-day pause on steep tariffs, but not everyone was comforted. One economist takes no solace in the president’s announcement and still believes there could be a recession,
Goldman Sachs rescinds recession forecast after just an hour on Trump tariff reversal
Goldman Sachs slashed its recession forecast not long after raising the chance of a downturn.The bank walked back its forecasts Wednesday an hour after Trump paused most of his tariffs.The bank now sees a 45% chance the economy could tip into recession in the next year.
Goldman Sachs Sees 65% Chance of US Recession in Next Year
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now see a 65% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, citing President Donald Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners.
Goldman Lowers China GDP Forecast, Citing Tariffs
Goldman Sachs revised down its economic growth forecasts for China, citing the expected negative effect of tariffs on the country’s economy and labor market. The bank now projects China’s real gross domestic product to rise 4% in 2025 and 3.
U.S. Recession Looks Less Likely After Trump's Tariff Pause
Goldman Sachs analysts reverted to their previous non-recession baseline forecast for the U.S. GDP growth, expecting it at 0.5% with a 45% probability of a recession, they said in a note. U.S. President Trump has announced a 90-day pause on certain tariffs for most countries.
Goldman Sachs Reverts Its Base Case to No Recession
Goldman Sachs economists said Wednesday afternoon that a recession is no longer their base case following Trump’s tariff pause. “We are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.
Trump caved on tariffs. It took a scary bond market freakout.
President Donald Trump is pushing the economy into a recession. The early signs are already apparent with autoworker layoffs in Indiana and Michigan, a stock market sell-off in recent days and Americans pulling back on spending.
Betting Markets Now See One-in-Two Chance of U.S. Recession
The chances of a U.S. recession this year have fallen after President Trump's tariff halt, but remain elevated, according to prices on betting markets. Bettors on Kalshi, a prediction market, recently put a 55% likelihood on the economy entering a recession this year.
Goldman Sachs Sees 65% Chance of US Recession in Next 12 Months
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now see a 65% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, citing President Donald Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners.
Goldman Sachs warns that oil could crash under $40 in an 'extreme' scenario
Lower energy prices are one of Trump's campaign promises, but an oil price crash could hit US producer margins.
Goldman’s Flood Sees Buy the Dip Returning With S&P 500 at 5,000
The S&P 500 stock index has dropped to a level where long-term investors are starting to buy the dip, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner John Flood.
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Goldman Sachs Predicts 45% Recession Risk While Boosting Bitcoin Holdings
Goldman Sachs increases US recession risk to 45% while holding $1.5B in Bitcoin, signaling potential economic downturn.
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Recession Betting Odds Surge Past 60% On Major Platforms As Markets Plunge Over Trump Tariffs
Polymarket, an offshore betting platform, shows a 62% chance of a recession occurring in the U.S. this year, cooling down Monday afternoon after peaking at 66% on Sunday, when Goldman Sachs economists said they expect a recession to occur if the Trump administration goes through with its tariff rates.
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