Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of February 26, 2026.

AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations ...

Congratulations to our very own Òscar Jordà for being newly elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society. This distinguished fellowship is a tremendous ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. This site presents a weekly and monthly series of the proxy funds rate, following Doh and Choi (2016), Choi, Doh, Foerster, and Martinez ...

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to core personal consumption expenditures from cyclical and acyclical components, based on the methods described in Mahedy ...

Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation from supply-driven versus demand-driven components. This tool is intended ...

News & Media How long before changes in the fed funds rate affect the economy?

How much should I change the fed funds rate in the game? - San Francisco Fed How much should I change the fed funds rate in the game?

PCE Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services provides monthly updates on price changes for the broad categories of goods and services that U.S. households consume, as measured by personal ...

News & Media In what ways is the game different than the real world?

How do changes in the fed funds rate affect the economy? - San Francisco Fed How do changes in the fed funds rate affect the economy?

News & Media In what ways is the game similar to the real world?