Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.

Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

September polling has been excellent for Democrats. They began the month with a generic congressional ballot lead of D +6.4. As of today, they’re up to D +7.5. That’s a high point for the party this ...

Donald Trump’s net approval rating is up slightly from its all time low of -20.6. Still, a net approval of -19.5 is far from popular. This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -13.0, ...

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention. The NFL is back ...

This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate ...

We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only ...

I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...