US sanctions seven Iran-backed militia leaders in Iraq. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April at 52.5% YES.

Iran issued military threats amid US negotiations, lowering ceasefire by April 21 to 8% YES, while ceasefire by June 30 rises ...

A $760M short trade in Brent crude preceded news of the Strait of Hormuz staying open. Crude oil hitting $90 by June now at ...

IRGC claims control of the Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade. UK warships through the Strait by April 30, 2026 at 8% YES.

Trump claims a deal with Iran is near despite uranium disputes. Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by April 30 at 40.7% ...

Schwab opens Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to 46 million clients with $11.8 trillion in assets. Bitcoin above $68K by April 13 ...

Calls for a treaty to shut down Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site have led to low odds for a ceasefire breach announcement ...

Democrats failed to block Trump’s military actions in Iran, and the US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 now sits ...

The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, remains stable at 6.5% YES, while a peace deal by April ...

Pakistan prepares for US-Iran peace talks with increased security. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 46.5% YES.

Sanctioned tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite US blockade. Normal traffic by April 30 at 61.5% YES.

Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports continues despite the strait’s reopening, and the market for a US blockade lift by May 31 ...