This is part of a series of articles exploring the potential for alternative data in diagnosing the economy. Beating financial markets is no easy feat. Given how many players there are and how much ...

When Dr. Anthony Fauci said in late May that there’s a “good chance” a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of this year, Steve Roth badly wanted to believe him. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker ...

“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement,” Tetlock writes in his book, ...

Journalists and commentators often make predictions about the future using ambiguous, carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the more precise language of numbers. Good Judgment, a ...

You may have read our story about the forecasting company Good Judgment and its worldwide team of superforecasters. Now it’s time to put them to the test. Their crystal ball is pretty fancy, based on ...

When Dr. Anthony Fauci said in late May that there’s a “good chance” a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of this year, Steve Roth badly wanted to believe him. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker ...

A group of laypeople with special talent for forecasting (“superforecasters”) have been consistently more accurate than the market in predicting Fed decisions on interest rates Superforecasters have ...