The most far-reaching version of Trump’s strategy would raise the effective, or average, tariff on U.S. imports to about 20%, comparable to the heavy import duties the nation imposed in the 1930s and that contributed to the Great Depression,

Mark Zandi said the situation may not be as grave if countries do not respond “in kind” to the president’s tariffs.

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi sees a 40% probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession this year on the back of the Trump administration’s implementation of trading tariffs and government employment cuts.